Polysilicon Market Game Sentiment Increases, Wafer Q4 Production Schedule Expected to Decrease [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM September 24:

Silicon coal

prices: This week, caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was 1,600-1,850 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal averaged 810 yuan/mt, silicon coal in Shaanxi averaged 775 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Gansu averaged 880 yuan/mt, granular coal averaged 990 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Ningxia averaged 1,130 yuan/mt, and silicon coal in Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/mt. However, in the short term, some regions may see a slight upward trend in prices, supported by raw material costs.

Supply: Overall supply is relatively ample, with most coal washing plants still scheduling production based on orders.

Demand: Demand is mainly rigid, and due to cost control, some silicon plants have relatively low acceptance of high-priced silicon coal.

Silicon metal

prices: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day. The trading range of the most-traded contract in the futures market pulled back from the previous day. The SI2511 contract opened at 8,930 yuan/mt, with a low of 8,855 yuan/mt, and closed at 8,925 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day. Silicon suppliers' offers were somewhat chaotic, with some silicon enterprises refusing to budge on prices due to smooth purchases earlier, while futures traders' offers were relatively weak due to the pullback in futures.

Production:

Operating capacity in the north increased in September from August, and national silicon metal production continued to rise.

Inventory:

Social inventory: As of September 18, SMM statistics showed that social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 543,000 mt, up 4,000 mt WoW. This included 120,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 1,000 mt WoW, and 423,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 3,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

prices

DMC: Current offers were 10,900-11,000 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. Driven by stronger cost support, relatively reduced supply, and the upcoming National Day holiday, monomer plants strengthened their stance on refusing to budge on prices, and transaction prices edged up again.

D4: Current offers were 10,900-12,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Current offers were 10,800-11,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw rubber: Current offers were 11,500-12,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Silicone oil: Current offers were 12,500-13,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Due to unexpected incidents at some monomer plants, the overall operating rate declined, and overall supply decreased slightly this week.

Inventory:

Supported by pre-sold orders, enterprise inventory levels remained basically stable WoW.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 50.3-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon was 49-50 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index was 52.44 yuan/kg. Market prices were generally stable, with transactions proceeding steadily. Crystal pulling plants showed some resistance to high-priced resources. Polysilicon enterprises maintained a certain market-supporting mentality due to their own inventory levels.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in September was estimated at around 130,000 mt, which remained in surplus compared to downstream demand. Production in October is expected to decline, with some regional capacity undergoing maintenance or operating rate cuts.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory fluctuated rangebound this week. The order signing pace slowed down, but some tail-end orders were still being shipped. If order signing proceeds normally in October, there may still be slight inventory buildup pressure.

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers was 1.4 yuan/piece. Transaction ranges for various sizes have largely converged, with 183mm and 210mm performing better than 210R.

Production

Wafer enterprises are expected to begin production cuts in October, which would achieve a tight supply-demand balance for the month. Subsequent developments will depend on raw material prices and downstream transmission. Based on association quotas, wafer enterprises have basically confirmed production cuts for Q4.

Inventory

Wafers experienced slight inventory buildup recently, but overall inventory remains below reasonable levels, with enterprises shipping steadily.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices were: inner layer sand at 58,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 25,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices dropped slightly this week, with the transaction center declining accordingly. Recent increases in raw ore supply and rising operating rates at some domestic sand enterprises, combined with falling import sand prices, have weakened domestic sand prices. Prices are expected to decline further as production increases.

Production

Quartz sand operating rates increased slightly this week, with domestic sand production rising again and import sand supply also growing.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory rose this week, as crucible enterprises have not yet begun new purchase plans.